Hawaiian Mist

34.08716, -111.44473

Reported this seasonlast reported 3 months ago

Every number here is a base rate from this source’s own report history — how the read is built.

Likely DRY

As of 2026-09-15 · 180d rain = 10.16″ · nearest historical analogs averaged 0.04 (Dry)

Medium memory — the last 180 days of rain predict it best. Typical of creeks with rock tanks that hold water after the flow itself stops. Dry 60% of the time.

Warm-season read. The rainfall model averages over roughly a 9–11 km grid, so it smooths out the isolated monsoon storms that actually fill tanks. This read is least reliable right now, which is exactly when a dry spring costs the most. Check radar before committing.

Thin evidence. 15 reports is above the 10 needed for a read, but under 25 the engine flags the evidence as thin. Treat this as weak — suggestive, not solid.

Why this read

How well rain predicts this source

Window	Raw	Season-controlled
180d←	+0.84	+0.70
90d	+0.78	+0.56
270d	+0.58	+0.41
60d	+0.56	+0.41
30d	+0.41	+0.46
365d	+0.22	+0.09

Rain and season are entangled — more reports get filed in cool, wet months. The season-controlled column removes that day-of-year cycle, so it is the trustworthy one. A big gap between the two columns means a correlation was mostly calendar, not rainfall. survives -> genuine rain response

Average flow by month

JFMAMJJASOND

Dashed = no reports that month, which is not the same as dry.

Add a report

What was the water doing when you were there? Every observation sharpens this source and, because nearby sources lend each other statistical strength, the ones around it.

Date you saw it

The day you were standing there, not today. The forecast correlates rainfall up to this date, so a wrong date is worse than no report.

How much water?

Score the water you could actually use. If the seep itself has stopped but the rock tanks below it are holding, that is water — score the tanks.

Dry0.0No water at all — not even poolsPools or dripping0.2Water present but not flowing; stagnant pools, a drip, a full spring box with no outflowTrickle0.4Light but filterable — you can fill a bottle, slowlyModerate0.6Steady flow, roughly a quart per minuteStrong0.8Roughly a gallon per minuteRaging1.0Gallon-plus, loud, no question about it

Notes (optional)

In your own words. Kept verbatim — the number is what the model reads, but this is what a human checks when a forecast looks surprising.

Report history (15)

2026-06-30Dry0.0
2026-05-15Dry0.0
2025-12-06Pools or dripping0.2Slowing down.
2025-11-28Strong0.8
2025-11-15Pools or dripping0.2Small trickle across the trail, you could probably find a pool deep enough to pull from.
2025-10-16Trickle0.4
2025-10-03Pools or dripping0.2Good trickle over the trail.
2025-09-14Dry0.0
2025-09-06Dry0.0
2025-06-21Dry0.0
2018-06-03Dry0.0
2017-11-18Dry0.0
2017-09-01Dry0.0
2017-05-06Trickle0.4
2016-09-23Dry0.0

Nearby

Big Kahuna Falls - Mazatzal Wilderness0.47 mi17 reports
Garden Seep0.65 mi2 reports
Castersen Seep1.3 mi9 reports
Y Bar Spring2.2 mi2 reports
Windsor Spring2.4 mi1 report
Brody Seep2.5 mi1 report
Chilson Spring2.7 mi3 reports