Big Kahuna Falls - Mazatzal Wilderness

34.08716, -111.45293

Reported this seasonlast reported 3 months ago

Every number here is a base rate from this source’s own report history — how the read is built.

Probably has water (light flow / pools)

As of 2026-09-15 · 90d rain = 8.00″ · nearest historical analogs averaged 0.32 (Trickle)

Driven by recent rain: the last 90 days predict it better than any longer window (strongly). It turns on fast after storms and off just as fast, and it is dry 35% of the time.

Warm-season read. The rainfall model averages over roughly a 9–11 km grid, so it smooths out the isolated monsoon storms that actually fill tanks. This read is least reliable right now, which is exactly when a dry spring costs the most. Check radar before committing.

Thin evidence. 17 reports is above the 10 needed for a read, but under 25 the engine flags the evidence as thin. Treat this as weak — suggestive, not solid.

Why this read

How well rain predicts this source

Window	Raw	Season-controlled
90d←	+0.89	+0.83
180d	+0.70	+0.62
60d	+0.68	+0.81
270d	+0.63	+0.67
30d	+0.43	+0.70
365d	+0.33	+0.48

Rain and season are entangled — more reports get filed in cool, wet months. The season-controlled column removes that day-of-year cycle, so it is the trustworthy one. A big gap between the two columns means a correlation was mostly calendar, not rainfall. survives -> genuine rain response

Average flow by month

JFMAMJJASOND

Dashed = no reports that month, which is not the same as dry.

Add a report

What was the water doing when you were there? Every observation sharpens this source and, because nearby sources lend each other statistical strength, the ones around it.

Date you saw it

The day you were standing there, not today. The forecast correlates rainfall up to this date, so a wrong date is worse than no report.

How much water?

Score the water you could actually use. If the seep itself has stopped but the rock tanks below it are holding, that is water — score the tanks.

Dry0.0No water at all — not even poolsPools or dripping0.2Water present but not flowing; stagnant pools, a drip, a full spring box with no outflowTrickle0.4Light but filterable — you can fill a bottle, slowlyModerate0.6Steady flow, roughly a quart per minuteStrong0.8Roughly a gallon per minuteRaging1.0Gallon-plus, loud, no question about it

Notes (optional)

In your own words. Kept verbatim — the number is what the model reads, but this is what a human checks when a forecast looks surprising.

Report history (17)

2026-06-30Dry0.0
2026-05-15Pools or dripping0.2Barely a trickle over the falls. Small stagnant pools under the falls above the trail.
2025-12-06Strong0.8Still big flow, trail crossing is a little rock-hoppy.
2025-11-28Strong0.8
2025-11-15Trickle0.4Good flow down the falls, but puddles near the trail are dried up.
2025-10-16Moderate0.6
2025-10-03Pools or dripping0.2No water at trail crossing, but falls are flowing, pools above trail to filter, and the creek below is flowing.
2025-09-14Dry0.0
2025-09-06Dry0.0
2025-06-21Dry0.0
2025-04-25Pools or dripping0.2Waterfall was trickling and there were multiple deep, clear pools just off trail to pull from.
2018-06-03Dry0.0
2017-11-18Dry0.0
2017-09-01Pools or dripping0.2
2017-05-06Pools or dripping0.2
2016-09-23Pools or dripping0.2Few clear pools, likely from the rain a few days ago. No trickles.
2016-04-02Pools or dripping0.2

Nearby

Hawaiian Mist0.47 mi15 reports
Castersen Seep0.81 mi9 reports
Garden Seep1.1 mi2 reports
Brody Seep2.1 mi1 report
Y Bar Spring2.1 mi2 reports
Chilson Spring2.2 mi3 reports
Windsor Spring2.2 mi1 report