Castersen Seep

34.09059, -111.46653

Reported this seasonlast reported 11 days ago

Every number here is a base rate from this source’s own report history — how the read is built.

Likely flowing well

As of 2026-10-30 · 30d rain = 12.03″ · nearest historical analogs averaged 0.96 (Raging)

Dry only 9% of the time, and rainfall barely moves it. That decoupling is exactly why it is dependable — it is fed by groundwater, not by last month's weather.

Thin evidence. 11 reports is above the 10 needed for a read, but under 25 the engine flags the evidence as thin. Treat this as weak — suggestive, not solid.

Why this read

How well rain predicts this source

Window	Raw	Season-controlled
180d	+0.89	+0.38
90d	+0.88	+0.26
60d	+0.84	+0.16
30d←	+0.83	+0.77
270d	+0.58	-0.28
365d	+0.38	-0.34

Rain and season are entangled — more reports get filed in cool, wet months. The season-controlled column removes that day-of-year cycle, so it is the trustworthy one. A big gap between the two columns means a correlation was mostly calendar, not rainfall. survives -> genuine rain response

Average flow by month

JFMAMJJASOND

Dashed = no reports that month, which is not the same as dry.

Add a report

What was the water doing when you were there? Every observation sharpens this source and, because nearby sources lend each other statistical strength, the ones around it.

Date you saw it

The day you were standing there, not today. The forecast correlates rainfall up to this date, so a wrong date is worse than no report.

How much water?

Score the water you could actually use. If the seep itself has stopped but the rock tanks below it are holding, that is water — score the tanks.

Dry0.0No water at all — not even poolsPools or dripping0.2Water present but not flowing; stagnant pools, a drip, a full spring box with no outflowTrickle0.4Light but filterable — you can fill a bottle, slowlyModerate0.6Steady flow, roughly a quart per minuteStrong0.8Roughly a gallon per minuteRaging1.0Gallon-plus, loud, no question about it

Notes (optional)

In your own words. Kept verbatim — the number is what the model reads, but this is what a human checks when a forecast looks surprising.

Report history (11)

2026-10-25Raging1.0
2026-10-16Raging1.0
2026-06-30Dry0.0
2026-05-15Trickle0.4Several deep pools filled with good water, trickle going over the falls.
2025-12-06Strong0.8Lots of water, including along the feeder creeks.
2025-11-28Raging1.0Heavy flow down both creeks feeding into the area, water everywhere.
2025-10-16Raging1.0Tons of water flowing down both creeks, plus there was a surprise seep seeping, tasted wonderful.
2025-05-24Pools or dripping0.2Less water flowing from pool to pool than in Apr, still enough clear water to scoop around the algae.
2025-04-25Moderate0.6Several algea-filled pools directly below the seep, trickling into larger, clear rock tanks that tasted... okay.
2018-06-03Pools or dripping0.2Few tanks below still had water, though they were opaque.
2017-09-01Pools or dripping0.2Well, the seep proper was dry, but there were tanks downstream that held water.

Nearby

Big Kahuna Falls - Mazatzal Wilderness0.81 mi19 reports
Hawaiian Mist1.3 mi17 reports
Chilson Spring1.4 mi3 reports
Brody Seep1.6 mi1 report
Garden Seep1.8 mi4 reports
Horse Camp Seep2.1 mi3 reports
Windsor Spring2.3 mi1 report