Backcountry Water Oracle
32.65812, -110.35787

Horse Canyon

32.65812, -110.35787

Nothing recentlast reported 19 months ago

How this site decides what it can and cannot say — the method.

Insufficient record

No read issued

4 reports — a correlation needs at least 10 before it means anything, so no read is issued here.

What people saw

4 observations between 2021-03-20 and 2025-02-17, ranging from dry to moderate. Most recently dry, 19 months ago.

These are the observations themselves, not a forecast. Too few to correlate against rainfall, but they are what people actually found.

Somebody found this completely dry. A source that has been dry can be dry again, whatever the rest of the record says.

  • 2025-02-17Dry0.0Dry along trail, very disappointing.
  • 2024-04-13Moderate0.6Strong flow for most of it's length, especially the final mile before Rattlesnake Creek.
  • 2022-01-14Moderate0.6Happy flow coming down the canyon.
  • 2021-03-20Dry0.0Dry at mouth.

Why

The engine will still produce a number from 4 reports, and that number is noise. It will happily report a perfect correlation from two observations. On a screen where someone is deciding how much water to carry, that is the most dangerous thing this site could render, so it is not rendered.

6 more reports would reach the 10 needed for a read.

This is the fix

Every dated observation moves this source closer to a read, and sharpens the ones around it too.

Add a report

What was the water doing when you were there? Every observation sharpens this source and, because nearby sources lend each other statistical strength, the ones around it.

The day you were standing there, not today. The forecast correlates rainfall up to this date, so a wrong date is worse than no report.

How much water?

Score the water you could actually use. If the seep itself has stopped but the rock tanks below it are holding, that is water — score the tanks.

In your own words. Kept verbatim — the number is what the model reads, but this is what a human checks when a forecast looks surprising.